PB Winners Analysis (Defenders) - 9th August to 1st Septemeber

Analysis involving PB Winners before the first International Break

Introduction

Since the change of the Performance Buzz matrix, I was keen to look into which components of the newly adjusted matrix were significant for scoring highly. From studying Economics at university, I have picked up new analytical skills, with one being the use of a program called Stata. Stata allows you to run commands on data, in this case of PB Winners’ breakdowns which I manually input into Excel and copied across.

So far, we have had 16 qualifying match days, from the 9thAugust until 1stSeptember. Therefore, we have 48 PB Winners. I have excluded Luigi Sepe from the defenders due to being a goalkeeper. This leaves us with 16 Forwards, 16 Midfielders and 15 Defenders, a total of 47 observations.

Overall

Firstly, I shall begin with a few screenshots of ways in which I record my data and look to analyse it. This is will allow us to see some overall facts and stats from all of the previous Performance Buzz Winners this season.

Overview of PB Winners – Includes a few data points:

Overall Summary of Data including most PB Breakdown Elements:

PB Winners - Defenders:

Breakdown:

- Defenders

PB Scoring:

- Average: 197.6

- Highest: 251 (Reguilon v Espanyol)

- Lowest: 149 (Maguire v Wolves)

Comments:

- Average is lower than the overall average.

- Variation is smaller. Highest score isn’t as high, lowest isn’t as low.

- Smaller variation due to the base scores that defenders acquire. Bonuses also less frequent.

Age:

- Average: 26.13

- Oldest: 35 (Dante)

- Youngest: 20 (Alexander-Arnold)

Shots:

- Average: 1.4

- Most: 5 (Reguilon v Espanyol)

Shots on Target:

- Average: 0.53

- Most: 2 (Dante v Amiens)

Dribbles (Attempted):

- Average: 1.4

- Most: 7 (Souquet v Lyon)

Successful:

- Average: 0.73 (52.4% of attempted dribbles completed)

- Most: 4 (Reguilon v Espanyol)

Comments:

- Averages within dribbles are also lower than the overall average.

- Due to small averages it may be that dribbles are insignificant (Average 3 PB points per game).

Goals:

- Total: 5 goals scored

- Average: 0.33

- Most: 1 (Dante, Reguilon, Alba, Souquet & Kenny)

- 33% of Winners scored at least 1 goal

- 80% of Winners that scored had a Game-Winning Goal

- 26.7% of Winners had a Game-Winning Goal

Comments:

- With 67% of PB Winners not scoring, it is clear goals are also not vital.

- 4/5 of the goal scorers are full backs.

Assists:

- Total: 4 goals assisted

- Average: 0.27

- Most: 1 (Reguilon, Alexander-Arnold, Asamoah & Celik)

- 4 Winners had 2 assists (8.5%) (De Bruyne, Insigne, Aouar & Alberto)

- 27% of Winners had an assist

Comments:

- Limited data makes it hard to tell its significance.

- All PB Winners with assists are Full Backs.

Crosses (Attempted):

- Average: 2.33

- Most: 13 (Alexander-Arnold v Arsenal)

Accurate:

- Average: 0.33 (35 attempted, 5 accurate – 14%)

Comments:

- This data may be skewed due to CB’s not making crosses.

- In some ways successful crosses aren’t really possible to predict due to fine margins.

- 7 Full Back won PB made a total of 35 Crosses. Average = 5 which is 15 points.

Key Passes:

- Average: 1.33

- Most: 6 (Alexander-Arnold v Arsenal)

- Second: 3 (Alba v Betis)

Comments:

- Defenders making numerous key passes will very likely be in one-sided matches due to the freedom to get forward.

Passes:

- Average: 74

- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers)

- Least: 26 (Souquet v Lyon)

Net Pass (Passes minus unsuccessful passes):

- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers – 100%)

- Second: 91 (Andersen v Monaco – 96.3%)

o Denayer’s was 97 in the same game (99%)

Comments:

- Passes are huge base for defenders. If the average PB score is 197.6, an average of 74 passes account for 37.4% of their score.

- This is almost taking up to 50% for adding on the win bonus of 18 points.

Tackles (Attempted):

- Average: 1.07

- Most: 4 (Marquinhos v Nimes)

Tackles Won:

- Average: 0.53 (16 attempted, 8 won – 50%)

- Most: 2 (Elvedi v Schalke)

Clearances:

- Average: 2.33

- Most: 6 (Maguire, Elvedi & Silva)

Interceptions:

- Average: 1.13

- Most: 5 (Silva v Metz)

Blocked Shots:

- Average: 0.4

- Most: 2 (Dante v Amiens & Denayer v Angers)

Ball Recoveries:

- Average: 6.47

- Most: 11 (Hummels v Koln, Elvedi v Schalke & Dante v Amiens)

Comments:

- Ball Recoveries are where defenders score the most points on average other than passes (19.41 points).

- Elements such as clearances, interceptions and blocked shots highly depend on the opposition having the ball, which of course is discouraged in a high PB score.

- Tackles are more often made by FB’s, rather than CB’s.

Extra:

- Positional Breakdown: 7 CB’s, 7 FB’s & Marquinhos won playing CDM.

- Only Reguilon had both a goal and an assist.

- Maguire & Hummels won PB without a goal or assist. However, they were on Single Match Days.

Analysis:

The defender’s category could be in some ways difficult to interpret. This is due to having both full backs and centre backs. Each position has different roles on the pitch, particularly as some teams heavily really on attacking full backs to help create chances by overloading against the opposition.

If we are to split FB’s and CB’s we are able to generate these stats:

The table above produces some stats that are as expected and some that are not. The average PB score for the Full Backs is slightly higher. Although, if you are to remove the average points added on from goals scored and assists (37.14 points for FB’s and 6.43 points for CB’s), you get average PB scores of 188.14 for CB’s and 164.57 for FB’s.

In my opinion, I was surprised that out of 7 CB’s that have won PB, only 1 of them (Dante) had a goal within their score. On the other hand, Dante has the highest score out of all 7 PB winning CB’s, which also involves the addition of a game-winning goal. Serio Reguilon is the only defender to score higher and he also has a game-winning goal as well as an assist within his PB breakdown.

It is also interesting to see that the average passing points from CB’s almost cover the deficit on if a FB is to score a goal (45 points). This would quite possibly be the reason for only 1 of the 7 CB’s to score a goal and win PB despite many CB’s scoring goals since the season started. Furthermore, I was surprised that the average passes of PB Winning FB’s was as high as it came out. However, Jordi Alba racked up 93 passes in his PB win against Betis as Barca had 70% possession.

The data suggests a PB winning FB will make 5 crosses on average within the match. With that comes the opportunity for additional points, such as accurate crosses that lead to key passes and assists.

I would suggest there are 3 exceptions in which a defender will win PB without a clean sheet. The first is for the defender to score a game-winning goal. The second, for it to be a single or double match day with fewer matches. The last is for a defender playing in a very dominant team. Therefore, the 25-point bonus will be made up by having more of the ball.

Overall Facts & Stats:

PB Scoring:

- Average: 214

- Highest: 349 (Parejo v Mallorca)

- Lowest: 104 (Rashford v Wolves)

Age:

- Average: 25.87

- Oldest: 35 (Dante)

- Youngest: 20 (Alexander-Arnold & Osimhen)

Shots:

- Average: 2.49

- Most: 8 (Kane v Aston Villa)

Shots on Target:

- Average: 1.3

- Most: 6 (Pukki v Newcastle)

Dribbles (Attempted):

- Average: 1.87

- Most: 10 (Di Maria v Metz)

Successful:

- Average: 1.15 (61.5% of attempted dribbles completed)

- Most: 5 (Brozovic v Lecce & Di Maria v Metz)

Goals:

- Total: 40 goals scored

- Average: 0.85

- Most: 3 (Pukki v Newcastle & Werner v Monchengladbach)

- 9 Winners scored 2 (19%)

- 16 Winners scored 1 (34%)

- 20 Winners did not score (42%)

- 58% of Winners scored at least 1 goal

- 44.68% of Winners had a Game-Winning Goal

Assists:

- Total: 22 goals assisted

- Average: 0.46

- Most: 3 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)

- 4 Winners had 2 assists (8.5%) (De Bruyne, Insigne, Aouar & Alberto)

- 10 Winners had 1 assist (21%)

- 31 Winners had no assists (66%)

- 34% of Winner had at least 1 assist

Crosses (Attempted):

- Average: 3.45

- Most: 18 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)

Accurate:

- Average: 0.96 (162 attempted, 45 accurate – 27.78%)

Key Passes:

- Average: 2.23

- Most: 9 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)

- Second: 6 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)

Passes:

- Average: 51.7

- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers)

- Least: 4 (Rogers v Villarreal)

Net Pass (Passes minus unsuccessful passes):

- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers – 100%)

- Second: 91 (Andersen v Monaco – 96.3%)

o Denayer’s was 97 in the same game (99%)

Tackles (Attempted):

- Average: 1.32

- Most: 5 (Pjanic v Parma)

Tackles Won:

- Average: 0.74 (62 attempted, 35 won – 56%)

- Most: 4 (Richarlison v Wolves & Verratti v Nimes)

Clearances:

- Average: 1.13

- Most: 6 (Maguire, Elvedi & Silva)

Interceptions:

- Average: 0.89

- Most: 5 (Silva v Metz)

Blocked Shots:

- Average: 0.34

- Most: 2 (Dante, Denayer, Jordan, Pjanic)

Ball Recoveries:

- Average: 5.87

- Most: 12 (Pogba v Wolves)

Extras:

- 10 out of 15 Defenders had Clean Sheets

- 42 out of the 47 PB Winners won in their PB match (89%)

Analysis:

From looking at the stats and facts above, it seems fairly clear to me that there are some components of the matrix that are clearly much more significant in scoring well in the Performance Buzz matrix.

If we are to take the Top 5 PB scores this season we can break them down and highlight key components.

Top 5:

Daniel Parejo – 349 – Against Mallorca

Marcelo Brozovic – 304 – Against Lecce

Lorenzo Insigne – 302 – Against Fiorentina

Marcel Sabitzer – 299 – Against Union Berlin

Timo Werner – 294 – Against Monchengladbach

Straight away, we can see that three of the top five scores are from midfielders. Lorenzo Insigne, classed as a forward, played as a left midfielder during his huge score. We will also discover further on that the average midfielder’s score is much higher than those of defenders or forwards. To me, this is no coincidence.

Yes, all five players scored at least 1 goal, and 4 out of 5 players had a game-winning goal bonus added (Sabitzer being the one without it). However, there are also other elements of the matrix that stood out to me.

Firstly, key passes are appearing to be significant in scoring highly. A total of 18 key passes were made from the top 5 scores, with the lowest being 2 key passes, the most being 6. The average of 3.6 per PB Winner is also much higher than the 2.23 average. This component also scores highly at 6 points per key pass made. Therefore, Parejo’s 6 key passes totalled to 36 points, which is slightly greater than 10% of his overall PB score and 15% of his base score of 229.

With the elimination of Werner, due to playing as an outright forward, it appears that a high scoring player with either make numerous crosses, or long balls.

- Parejo: 8 Long Balls, 8 Crosses, 5 Accurate = 60 points

- Brozovic: 13 Long Balls, 1 Cross = 29 points

- Insigne: 5 Long Balls, 1 Cross = 13 points

- Sabitzer: 1 Long Ball, 4 Crosses, 1 Accurate = 18 points

Whether they are playing more long balls or more crosses will depend on whether they are playing through the middle, which they play more long balls, or out wide where they are frequently in the position to make a lot of crosses.

A final component in which all five players scored well in is ball recoveries.

- Parejo: 7 Ball Recoveries = 21 points

- Brozovic: 8 Ball Recoveries = 24 points

- Insigne: 9 Ball Recoveries = 27 points

- Sabitzer: 11 Ball Recoveries = 33 points

- Werner: 5 Ball Recoveries =. 15 points

With the exception of Werner, possibly due to playing up front, the remaining players all scored well over average on ball recoveries that come with 3 points for each recovery made. It makes logical sense compare ball recoveries to dribbles. A ball recovery has a higher average in frequency and is rewarded by 3 points, rather than an attempted dribble scoring 1 point and a successful one scoring an additional 2. Thus, a successful dribble scores the same as a single ball recovery. In my opinion we are likely to see high number of ball recoveries from teams that press with a high line, such a Liverpool and Man City.

To complete this section, I believe that we are seeing the higher scores coming from midfielders due to the opportunities for them to be involved in a match. Within 30 seconds it would be possible for a midfielder to make a tackle, dribble around a player, and then playing a key pass from a successful cross which leads to a goal. All of this would score as such:

- Tackle + Tackle Won + Ball Recovery = 3 + 4 + 3 = 10 points

- Attempted & Successful Dribble = 1 + 2 = 3 points

- Key Pass + Attempted & Successful Cross + Pass = 6 + 3 + 4 + 1 = 14 points

- Assist = 20 points

- Total = 10 + 3 + 14 + 20 points = 47 points

I hope this extension of defenders being added to my original analysis of a general overview of PB Winners has been of interest to you. If this post has also triggered anything interesting in which you wish to discuss them don’t be afraid to get in touch and I will look to improve future posts.

I can be found on both Twitter and Slack - @FI_KBrown

If you have any further questions I am more than happy to answer them.

Thanks! FI_KBrown