Analysis involving PB Winners before the first International Break
Introduction
Since the change of the Performance Buzz matrix, I was keen to look into which components of the newly adjusted matrix were significant for scoring highly. From studying Economics at university, I have picked up new analytical skills, with one being the use of a program called Stata. Stata allows you to run commands on data, in this case of PB Winners’ breakdowns which I manually input into Excel and copied across.
So far, we have had 16 qualifying match days, from the 9thAugust until 1stSeptember. Therefore, we have 48 PB Winners. I have excluded Luigi Sepe from the defenders due to being a goalkeeper. This leaves us with 16 Forwards, 16 Midfielders and 15 Defenders, a total of 47 observations.
Overall
Firstly, I shall begin with a few screenshots of ways in which I record my data and look to analyse it. This is will allow us to see some overall facts and stats from all of the previous Performance Buzz Winners this season.
Overview of PB Winners – Includes a few data points:
Overall Summary of Data including most PB Breakdown Elements:
Overview of PB Winning Forwards:
Breakdown:
- Forwards
PB Scoring:
- Average: 208
- Highest: 302 (Insigne v Fiorentina)
- Lowest: 104 (Rashford v Wolves)
Comments:
- The PB scores can be affected by lower winning PB scores on Single Match Days.
Age:
- Average: 24.94
- Oldest: 29 (Pukki)
- Youngest: 20 (Osimhen)
Shots:
- Average: 3.5
- Most: 8 (Kane v Aston Villa)
Shots on Target:
- Average: 2.125 (60.7% total shots on target)
- Most: 6 (Pukki v Newcastle)
Comments:
- A shot on target stacks for 8 points. Therefore, having multiple shots on target can really elevate a score.
Dribbles (Attempted):
- Average: 1.56
- Most: 6 (Suso v Brescia)
Successful:
- Average: 1 (66.67% of attempted dribbles completed)
- Most: 3 (Werner v Monchengladbach & Suso v Brescia)
Comments:
- Classic ‘Number 9’s’ hardly attempt and complete many dribbles at all.
- Thus, there is no surprise the highest dribble attempts if from a wide forward.
Goals:
- Total: 25 goals scored
- Average: 1.5625
- Most: 3 (Pukki v Newcastle & Werner v Monchengladbach)
- 81.25% of Winners scored at least 1 goal
- 62.5% of Winners had a Game-Winning Goal
Comments:
- A very high percentage of PB winning Forwards scored, as expected.
- Only 3 Forwards didn’t score (Rashford, Laborde & Suso).
Assists:
- Total: 7 goals assisted
- Average: 0.4375
- Most: 2 (Insigne v Fiorentina)
- 37.5% of Winners had an assist
Comments:
- Since Forwards are heavily judged on goals and the involvement of them, it is fairly surprising to see only 6 of the 16 PB Winners had an assist.
- Only 2 Forwards won PB with just an assist and no goals scored. One being Suso with a very large base score of 202. The other being Rashford when Man United v Wolves was the only match that day.
Crosses (Attempted):
- Average: 2.625
- Most: 12 (Suso v Brescia)
Accurate:
- Average: 0.5 (42 attempted, 8 accurate – 19%)
Comments:
- Likely to be rather low unless playing wide, due to Forwards being the likely target for a cross.
- A Forward taking set-pieces would really help their base score.
Key Passes:
- Average: 2.25
- Most: 4 (From 5 players)
Comments:
- More likely to be played by deeper Forwards and wide players with the same reasoning as crosses.
Passes:
- Average: 23.875
- Most: 54 (Griezmann v Betis)
- Least: 4 (Rogers v Villarreal)
Net Pass (Passes minus unsuccessful passes):
- Most: 30 (Suso v Fiorentina – 91.3%)
- 10 players out of 16 with positive net passes
Comments:
- Passes may be limited for Forwards. Although, it really matters with what Forwards do with the ball once they have it.
- Forwards that take more care with looking after the ball are likely to score high as they will have less points deducted for misplaced passes.
Tackles (Attempted):
- Average: 0.9375
- Most: 4 (Richarlison v Wolves)
Tackles Won:
- Average: 0.625 (15 attempted, 10 won – 66.67%)
- Most: 4 (Richarlison v Wolves)
Clearances:
- Average: 0.5
- Most: 4 (Richarlison v Wolves)
Interceptions:
- Average: 0.375
- Most: 2 (Morata v Getafe)
Blocked Shots:
- None
Ball Recoveries:
- Average: 4.0625
- Most: 9 (Insigne v Fiorentina)
Comments:
- Defensive stats seem rather irrelevant to Forwards other than the Ball Recoveries (average 12 points per match).
Extra:
- 9 out of 16 Forwards played as ST’s.
- 5 out of 16 Forwards played as Inside Forwards
- 2 out of 16 Forwards played as Wingers.
Analysis:
Due to having limited data to analyse, it seems rather difficult to highlight elements of the PB matrix other than goals in which PB Winning Forwards build a strong score around.
However, if we are to look at the Top 5 scoring elements, this may give us a starting point.
1) Goals – 70 points
2) Passes – 24 points
3) Game-Winning Goal – 22 points
4) Shots (Including ‘On Target’) – 21 points
5) Key Passes – 13.5 points
It is interesting that assists are not in there, scoring just 8.75 points on average per game. This is even lower than ball recoveries of 12 points. From that data I have collected Forwards have averaged a base score of 72.5 points. This is considerably lower than the other two categories of Defenders and Midfielders, particularly when you consider every single Midfielder had a base score of greater than 100 in their PB win. Just 3 of the Forwards have a base score higher than 100. These are Insigne (104), Suso (153) and Richarlison (133). It is also important to note that I have not included the win bonus in their base score, in which Index Gain does include. The reason for this is that it is also possible to win PB without having a win bonus (18 points), which we have seen numerous times this season. All of the higher base scores are from players that are not playing as a ST. This will be due to wide players gaining points from elements such as crosses and key passes.
It is also interesting to see out of the 4 Triple Match Days, only 1 ST has won PB. This was Teemu Pukki who had to score a hat-trick to do so. Therefore, if this trend is to continue then perhaps there is far more value in wide players than out right strikers.
Overall Facts & Stats:
PB Scoring:
- Average: 214
- Highest: 349 (Parejo v Mallorca)
- Lowest: 104 (Rashford v Wolves)
Age:
- Average: 25.87
- Oldest: 35 (Dante)
- Youngest: 20 (Alexander-Arnold & Osimhen)
Shots:
- Average: 2.49
- Most: 8 (Kane v Aston Villa)
Shots on Target:
- Average: 1.3
- Most: 6 (Pukki v Newcastle)
Dribbles (Attempted):
- Average: 1.87
- Most: 10 (Di Maria v Metz)
Successful:
- Average: 1.15 (61.5% of attempted dribbles completed)
- Most: 5 (Brozovic v Lecce & Di Maria v Metz)
Goals:
- Total: 40 goals scored
- Average: 0.85
- Most: 3 (Pukki v Newcastle & Werner v Monchengladbach)
- 9 Winners scored 2 (19%)
- 16 Winners scored 1 (34%)
- 20 Winners did not score (42%)
- 58% of Winners scored at least 1 goal
- 44.68% of Winners had a Game-Winning Goal
Assists:
- Total: 22 goals assisted
- Average: 0.46
- Most: 3 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)
- 4 Winners had 2 assists (8.5%) (De Bruyne, Insigne, Aouar & Alberto)
- 10 Winners had 1 assist (21%)
- 31 Winners had no assists (66%)
- 34% of Winner had at least 1 assist
Crosses (Attempted):
- Average: 3.45
- Most: 18 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)
Accurate:
- Average: 0.96 (162 attempted, 45 accurate – 27.78%)
Key Passes:
- Average: 2.23
- Most: 9 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)
- Second: 6 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)
Passes:
- Average: 51.7
- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers)
- Least: 4 (Rogers v Villarreal)
Net Pass (Passes minus unsuccessful passes):
- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers – 100%)
- Second: 91 (Andersen v Monaco – 96.3%)
o Denayer’s was 97 in the same game (99%)
Tackles (Attempted):
- Average: 1.32
- Most: 5 (Pjanic v Parma)
Tackles Won:
- Average: 0.74 (62 attempted, 35 won – 56%)
- Most: 4 (Richarlison v Wolves & Verratti v Nimes)
Clearances:
- Average: 1.13
- Most: 6 (Maguire, Elvedi & Silva)
Interceptions:
- Average: 0.89
- Most: 5 (Silva v Metz)
Blocked Shots:
- Average: 0.34
- Most: 2 (Dante, Denayer, Jordan, Pjanic)
Ball Recoveries:
- Average: 5.87
- Most: 12 (Pogba v Wolves)
Extras:
- 10 out of 15 Defenders had Clean Sheets
- 42 out of the 47 PB Winners won in their PB match (89%)
Analysis:
From looking at the stats and facts above, it seems fairly clear to me that there are some components of the matrix that are clearly much more significant in scoring well in the Performance Buzz matrix.
If we are to take the Top 5 PB scores this season we can break them down and highlight key components.
Top 5:
Daniel Parejo – 349 – Against Mallorca
Marcelo Brozovic – 304 – Against Lecce
Lorenzo Insigne – 302 – Against Fiorentina
Marcel Sabitzer – 299 – Against Union Berlin
Timo Werner – 294 – Against Monchengladbach
Straight away, we can see that three of the top five scores are from midfielders. Lorenzo Insigne, classed as a forward, played as a left midfielder during his huge score. We will also discover further on that the average midfielder’s score is much higher than those of defenders or forwards. To me, this is no coincidence.
Yes, all five players scored at least 1 goal, and 4 out of 5 players had a game-winning goal bonus added (Sabitzer being the one without it). However, there are also other elements of the matrix that stood out to me.
Firstly, key passes are appearing to be significant in scoring highly. A total of 18 key passes were made from the top 5 scores, with the lowest being 2 key passes, the most being 6. The average of 3.6 per PB Winner is also much higher than the 2.23 average. This component also scores highly at 6 points per key pass made. Therefore, Parejo’s 6 key passes totalled to 36 points, which is slightly greater than 10% of his overall PB score and 15% of his base score of 229.
With the elimination of Werner, due to playing as an outright forward, it appears that a high scoring player with either make numerous crosses, or long balls.
- Parejo: 8 Long Balls, 8 Crosses, 5 Accurate = 60 points
- Brozovic: 13 Long Balls, 1 Cross = 29 points
- Insigne: 5 Long Balls, 1 Cross = 13 points
- Sabitzer: 1 Long Ball, 4 Crosses, 1 Accurate = 18 points
Whether they are playing more long balls or more crosses will depend on whether they are playing through the middle, which they play more long balls, or out wide where they are frequently in the position to make a lot of crosses.
A final component in which all five players scored well in is ball recoveries.
- Parejo: 7 Ball Recoveries = 21 points
- Brozovic: 8 Ball Recoveries = 24 points
- Insigne: 9 Ball Recoveries = 27 points
- Sabitzer: 11 Ball Recoveries = 33 points
- Werner: 5 Ball Recoveries =. 15 points
With the exception of Werner, possibly due to playing up front, the remaining players all scored well over average on ball recoveries that come with 3 points for each recovery made. It makes logical sense compare ball recoveries to dribbles. A ball recovery has a higher average in frequency and is rewarded by 3 points, rather than an attempted dribble scoring 1 point and a successful one scoring an additional 2. Thus, a successful dribble scores the same as a single ball recovery. In my opinion we are likely to see high number of ball recoveries from teams that press with a high line, such a Liverpool and Man City.
To complete this section, I believe that we are seeing the higher scores coming from midfielders due to the opportunities for them to be involved in a match. Within 30 seconds it would be possible for a midfielder to make a tackle, dribble around a player, and then playing a key pass from a successful cross which leads to a goal. All of this would score as such:
- Tackle + Tackle Won + Ball Recovery = 3 + 4 + 3 = 10 points
- Attempted & Successful Dribble = 1 + 2 = 3 points
- Key Pass + Attempted & Successful Cross + Pass = 6 + 3 + 4 + 1 = 14 points
- Assist = 20 points
- Total = 10 + 3 + 14 + 20 points = 47 points
I hope this extension of forwards being added to my original analysis of a general overview of PB Winners has been of interest to you. If this post has also triggered anything interesting in which you wish to discuss them don’t be afraid to get in touch and I will look to improve future posts.
I can be found on both Twitter and Slack - @FI_KBrown
If you have any further questions I am more than happy to answer them.
Thanks!
FI_KBrown