PB Winners Analysis (Midfielders) - 9th August to 1st September

Analysis involving PB Winners before the first International Break

Introduction

Since the change of the Performance Buzz matrix, I was keen to look into which components of the newly adjusted matrix were significant for scoring highly. From studying Economics at university, I have picked up new analytical skills, with one being the use of a program called Stata. Stata allows you to run commands on data, in this case of PB Winners’ breakdowns which I manually input into Excel and copied across.

So far, we have had 16 qualifying match days, from the 9thAugust until 1stSeptember. Therefore, we have 48 PB Winners. I have excluded Luigi Sepe from the defenders due to being a goalkeeper. This leaves us with 16 Forwards, 16 Midfielders and 15 Defenders, a total of 47 observations.

Overall

Firstly, I shall begin with a few screenshots of ways in which I record my data and look to analyse it. This is will allow us to see some overall facts and stats from all of the previous Performance Buzz Winners this season.

Overview of PB Winners – Includes a few data points:

Overall Summary of Data including most PB Breakdown Elements:

Overview of PB Winners (Midfielders):

Breakdown:

- Midfielders

PB Scoring:

- Average: 234

- Highest: 349 (Parejo v Mallorca)

- Lowest: 125 (Mollet v Lyon)

Comments:

- Highest average from all 3 positions.

- Only 4/16 scores are below 200 (3 Single, 1 Double Match Days).

- Midfielders scoring highly as they are able to gain points from the higher scoring elements, defensively and offensively (E.g. key passes, tackles won, goals).

Age:

- Average: 26.56

- Oldest: 32 (Payet)

- Youngest: 21 (Aouar)

Shots:

- Average: 2.375

- Most: 4 (From 5 players)

Shots on Target:

- Average: 1.125

- Most: 2 (From 5 players)

Dribbles (Attempted):

- Average: 2.5

- Most: 10 (Di Maria v Metz)

Successful:

- Average: 1.56 (62.5% of attempted dribbles completed)

- Most: 5 (Di Maria v Metz & Alberto v Sampdoria)

Comments:

- Dribbles likely to differ depending on whether the player is playing out wide or centrally.

Goals:

- Total: 10 goals scored

- Average: 0.625

- Most: 2 (Parejo v Mallorca)

- 56% of Winners scored at least 1 goal

- 43.75% of Winners had a Game-Winning Goal

Comments:

- Frequent goals are a large reason for the high PB scores from Midfielder’s.

Assists:

- Total: 11 goals assisted

- Average: 0.6875

- Most: 3 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)

- 37.5% of Winners had an assist

Comments:

- Less frequent than goals, possibly due to being less significant in helping to win PB.

- Although in some cases the additional 20 points is the difference for winning PB.

Crosses (Attempted):

- Average: 5.3125

- Most: 18 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)

Accurate:

- Average: 2 (85 attempted, 32 accurate – 37.6%)

Comments:

- Crosses may be skewed slightly by KDB.

- Number of crosses may also depend on the players position or whether they take set pieces.

Key Passes:

- Average: 3.0625

- Most: 9 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)

- Second: 6 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)

- Tousart on a Single Match Day is the only player to win PB without a key pass.

Comments:

- With it being 6 points per key pass, it is a large reason why some PB scores are so high in my opinion. Particularly as key passes can be stacked with assists or other passing components to the matrix.

Passes:

- Average: 58.625

- Most: 99 (Verratti v Nimes)

- Least: 22 (Payet v Nice)

Net Pass (Passes minus unsuccessful passes):

- Most: 81 (Verratti v Nimes – 94.3%)

Comments:

- I feel this average will not be far off from the end of the season.

- Players with high numbers of passing are less likely to be involved in the goals.

- Players with low numbers of passing are likely to be more attacking and also make numerous key passes and crosses.

Tackles (Attempted):

- Average: 1.9375

- Most: 5 (Pjanic v Parma)

Tackles Won:

- Average: 1.0625 (31 attempted, 17 won – 54.8%)

- Most: 4 (Verratti v Nimes)

Clearances:

- Average: 0.625

- Most: 2 (Tousart, Pogba & Brozovic)

Interceptions:

- Average: 1

- Most: 3 (Pjanic v Parma & Brozovic v Lecce)

Blocked Shots:

- Average: 0.625

- Most: 2 (Jordan v Granada & Denayer v Pjanic v Parma)

Ball Recoveries:

- Average: 7.125

- Most: 12 (Pogba v Wolves)

Comments:

- These defensive elements average to approximately 40 points each game.

Extra:

- Only 3 Midfielders that have won played as wingers. (18.75%).

- Each winger also scored 1 goal in winning PB.

- 9 out of 16 Midfielders also played in a 433 formation. But this could just be coincidence.

Analysis:

So far this season we have seen Midfielders hit some huge scores. Their involvement in games allows them to benefit from both defensive and offensive situation throughout the match. Due to their involvement in games, from my data, all 16 Midfielders have a base score of above 100. The bonus points from winning a match, goals, game-winning goals and assists are then able to sky rocket PB scores, to the extent that Parejo had a score of 349 from taking 2 penalties in a 2-0 win, with a base score of 193, which has been a winning score on a single and double match day on its own.

Due to the base scores of strong PB players, if there are any that end up changing category to a Forward we could see a very large spike in their price. This is due to the PB score required to win on average being slightly lower for Forwards. The fact that 9 out of the 16 star-man winners are Midfielders, whilst there are only 4 star-man winners that are Forwards.

From what we have seen here so far, I would stay away from wingers that are classed as Midfielders are they are having to compete against much higher base scores and would have to score 2 or 3 goals to stand a chance of winning PB on a Triple Match Day. Their base scores seem reasonable, but nothing compared to CM’s dictating the game. On the other hand, a player classed as a defender playing in midfielder would like have an enhanced score as they would still maintain a strong base score, but would also have the opportunity to benefit from the offensive components within the matrix.

Top 5 Highest Scoring Components Excluding Passes (On Average):

1) Goals – 28.125

2) Cross – 23.9375 (Average attempted + average accurate)

3) Ball Recoveries – 21.375

4) Key Pass – 18.375

5) Assist – 13.75

I have personally been mentioning the importance of ball recoveries, and with an average addition of 21.375 points due to them, it could prove the difference between competing for PB or not in my opinion. The defensive elements are a great way of building up a stronger base score to improve the probability of a PB win. From the data table you can see that every single PB winner had at least 1 ball recovery. That accounts for the same amount of points as an attempted cross, and also often leads to an addition point from making a pass once recovering the ball.

Due to Midfielders being able to score highly in a number of different ways, we may not have enough data to really spot too many trends in where they are generating the most amount of points from. Because of this, I wouldn’t rely too heavily on the ‘Top 5 Highest Scoring Components’, but may be a nice starting point when researching a player.

Overall Facts & Stats:

PB Scoring:

- Average: 214

- Highest: 349 (Parejo v Mallorca)

- Lowest: 104 (Rashford v Wolves)

Age:

- Average: 25.87

- Oldest: 35 (Dante)

- Youngest: 20 (Alexander-Arnold & Osimhen)

Shots:

- Average: 2.49

- Most: 8 (Kane v Aston Villa)

Shots on Target:

- Average: 1.3

- Most: 6 (Pukki v Newcastle)

Dribbles (Attempted):

- Average: 1.87

- Most: 10 (Di Maria v Metz)

Successful:

- Average: 1.15 (61.5% of attempted dribbles completed)

- Most: 5 (Brozovic v Lecce & Di Maria v Metz)

Goals:

- Total: 40 goals scored

- Average: 0.85

- Most: 3 (Pukki v Newcastle & Werner v Monchengladbach)

- 9 Winners scored 2 (19%)

- 16 Winners scored 1 (34%)

- 20 Winners did not score (42%)

- 58% of Winners scored at least 1 goal

- 44.68% of Winners had a Game-Winning Goal

Assists:

- Total: 22 goals assisted

- Average: 0.46

- Most: 3 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)

- 4 Winners had 2 assists (8.5%) (De Bruyne, Insigne, Aouar & Alberto)

- 10 Winners had 1 assist (21%)

- 31 Winners had no assists (66%)

- 34% of Winner had at least 1 assist

Crosses (Attempted):

- Average: 3.45

- Most: 18 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)

Accurate:

- Average: 0.96 (162 attempted, 45 accurate – 27.78%)

Key Passes:

- Average: 2.23

- Most: 9 (De Bruyne v Tottenham)

- Second: 6 (Sabitzer v Union Berlin)

Passes:

- Average: 51.7

- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers)

- Least: 4 (Rogers v Villarreal)

Net Pass (Passes minus unsuccessful passes):

- Most: 114 (Denayer v Angers – 100%)

- Second: 91 (Andersen v Monaco – 96.3%)

- Denayer’s was 97 in the same game (99%)

Tackles (Attempted):

- Average: 1.32

- Most: 5 (Pjanic v Parma)

Tackles Won:

- Average: 0.74 (62 attempted, 35 won – 56%)

- Most: 4 (Richarlison v Wolves & Verratti v Nimes)

Clearances:

- Average: 1.13

- Most: 6 (Maguire, Elvedi & Silva)

Interceptions:

- Average: 0.89

- Most: 5 (Silva v Metz)

Blocked Shots:

- Average: 0.34

- Most: 2 (Dante, Denayer, Jordan, Pjanic)

Ball Recoveries:

- Average: 5.87

- Most: 12 (Pogba v Wolves)

Extras:

- 10 out of 15 Defenders had Clean Sheets

- 42 out of the 47 PB Winners won in their PB match (89%)

Analysis:

From looking at the stats and facts above, it seems fairly clear to me that there are some components of the matrix that are clearly much more significant in scoring well in the Performance Buzz matrix.

If we are to take the Top 5 PB scores this season we can break them down and highlight key components.

Top 5:

Daniel Parejo – 349 – Against Mallorca

Marcelo Brozovic – 304 – Against Lecce

Lorenzo Insigne – 302 – Against Fiorentina

Marcel Sabitzer – 299 – Against Union Berlin

Timo Werner – 294 – Against Monchengladbach

Straight away, we can see that three of the top five scores are from midfielders. Lorenzo Insigne, classed as a forward, played as a left midfielder during his huge score. We will also discover further on that the average midfielder’s score is much higher than those of defenders or forwards. To me, this is no coincidence.

Yes, all five players scored at least 1 goal, and 4 out of 5 players had a game-winning goal bonus added (Sabitzer being the one without it). However, there are also other elements of the matrix that stood out to me.

Firstly, key passes are appearing to be significant in scoring highly. A total of 18 key passes were made from the top 5 scores, with the lowest being 2 key passes, the most being 6. The average of 3.6 per PB Winner is also much higher than the 2.23 average. This component also scores highly at 6 points per key pass made. Therefore, Parejo’s 6 key passes totalled to 36 points, which is slightly greater than 10% of his overall PB score and 15% of his base score of 229.

With the elimination of Werner, due to playing as an outright forward, it appears that a high scoring player with either make numerous crosses, or long balls.

- Parejo: 8 Long Balls, 8 Crosses, 5 Accurate = 60 points

- Brozovic: 13 Long Balls, 1 Cross = 29 points

- Insigne: 5 Long Balls, 1 Cross = 13 points

- Sabitzer: 1 Long Ball, 4 Crosses, 1 Accurate = 18 points

Whether they are playing more long balls or more crosses will depend on whether they are playing through the middle, which they play more long balls, or out wide where they are frequently in the position to make a lot of crosses.

A final component in which all five players scored well in is ball recoveries.

- Parejo: 7 Ball Recoveries = 21 points

- Brozovic: 8 Ball Recoveries = 24 points

- Insigne: 9 Ball Recoveries = 27 points

- Sabitzer: 11 Ball Recoveries = 33 points

- Werner: 5 Ball Recoveries =. 15 points

With the exception of Werner, possibly due to playing up front, the remaining players all scored well over average on ball recoveries that come with 3 points for each recovery made. It makes logical sense compare ball recoveries to dribbles. A ball recovery has a higher average in frequency and is rewarded by 3 points, rather than an attempted dribble scoring 1 point and a successful one scoring an additional 2. Thus, a successful dribble scores the same as a single ball recovery. In my opinion we are likely to see high number of ball recoveries from teams that press with a high line, such a Liverpool and Man City.

To complete this section, I believe that we are seeing the higher scores coming from midfielders due to the opportunities for them to be involved in a match. Within 30 seconds it would be possible for a midfielder to make a tackle, dribble around a player, and then playing a key pass from a successful cross which leads to a goal. All of this would score as such:

- Tackle + Tackle Won + Ball Recovery = 3 + 4 + 3 = 10 points

- Attempted & Successful Dribble = 1 + 2 = 3 points

- Key Pass + Attempted & Successful Cross + Pass = 6 + 3 + 4 + 1 = 14 points

- Assist = 20 points

- Total = 10 + 3 + 14 + 20 points = 47 points

I hope this extension of midfielders being added to my original analysis of a general overview of PB Winners has been of interest to you. If this post has also triggered anything interesting in which you wish to discuss them don’t be afraid to get in touch and I will look to improve future posts.

I can be found on both Twitter and Slack - @FI_KBrown

If you have any further questions I am more than happy to answer them.

Thanks! FI_KBrown