Top 10 Players Price Analysis

Introduction:

Given the recent growth of the Football Index platform I have chosen to conduct research experiments, solely focusing on market data rather than the stats derived from the football itself. With the market data I will be aiming to spot trends and cycles to gain further knowledge over other traders on the platform.

Experiment:

Price Analysis of Top 10 Players

This experiment will initially last for 3 weeks (21 days), starting on Monday 4thFebruary, which I will look to analyse individual player prices as well as a collective of players. Furthermore, I will also look to compare the general growth of the Top 10 players with the growth of the “Footie” value.

From this analysis I will be able to see the cycles of the Top 10 players, how they appreciate in price over the three weeks and whether there are particular days of the week in which they are more prone to appreciating than others.

Prediction:

Before this experiment I would expect to see an overall growth of the Top 10 players on the Football Index, as you would think these are the players that are most commonly looked at and monitored. It is also quite common to see people compare an individual player’s price to whoever is the most expensive player on the index. I would also expect to see a small return in dividends from the Top 10 players over the 3-week period.

However, it may also be worth considering the current speculation of the Top 10 players. Such as Neymar, the most expensive player on the index is currently injured, and won’t be returning until after the experiment has finished. Harry Kane is also injured, and is expected to return at the end of the experiment so I would suggest we will not see any dividends returned from these two players. Although, all 10 players’ clubs are involved in Champions League football over the experiment and may lead to price changes due to the possibility of playing in a Quarter Final that will qualify as a Treble Match Day pay-out.

It is also worth mentioning that Manchester United coming into this experiment are 10 matches unbeaten, with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer playing attacking football. This has had a huge impact of Marcus Rashford’s price increasing from around £7 to just over £13. It also appears the United legend has also been able to best out of World Cup Winner Paul Pogba, playing him in a ‘Number 10’ role and being involved in the vast majority of United’s goals scored. Finally Vinicius Junior and Jadon Sancho have also seen a rise in price as the current trend on the index seems to be to purchase youngsters that have potential to grow long term. Perhaps the rise of Rashford acted as a catalyst to this?

The Results:

Below is the completed table that was used during this experiment to capture the market data. This included monitoring players prices daily, recording their dividends and recording the levels of the ‘Footie’ value.

From the table alone, we are able to conduct some numerical analysis. Over the 3-week period the ‘Footie’ rose by 4.8%, yet the overall rise of the Top 10 players was just 0.86%, so maybe it’s possible that the prices of the Top 10 are not as strongly correlated with the “Footie’ value as first thought. However, with both number moving in a positive direction, I personally see this as a good sign for the index.

Player Analysis:

Neymar:

Team: PSG

Game Involvement: None – Injured

Neymar’s price movement seems rather simple to explain. Due to his injury his price seemed to decline for a period of time, up until the 12thFebruary. On this day PSG beat Man United 2-0 away from home, which makes them likely to progress to the quarter-final of the Champions League, qualifying for a Treble Match day, in which Neymar will be back and able to play. This progression sparked a rise in Neymar’s price which was not surprising. However, some they may appear surprising is that his price is now higher than the day he got injured. Yet this may be a sign of the growth of the Index.

Despite not playing at all, Neymar had an overall increase of £0.58 (2.87%).

Paul Pogba:

Team: Manchester United

Game Involvement: 4 Games, 3 Goals, 1 Assists, 1 Red Card

09/02/2019 – Fulham (A) 0-3 Win – 2 Goals

12/02/2019 – PSG (H) 0-2 Loss – Red Card (Two Yellows)

18/02/2019 – Chelsea (A) 0-2 Win – 1 Goal, 1 Assist

24/02/2019 – Liverpool (H) 0-0 Draw

Paul Pogba seems to be one of the large factors in Ole’s success as he has taken over Man United. He is now playing in a more favoured position, just like he did at Juventus, and from doing so has grabbed 3 goals and 1 assist. However, he was undone in the Champions League against a well organised and professional PSG, picking up two yellow cards, resulting in missing the second leg.

Pogba’s price also dipped for the first few days of the experiment. However, after his game against Fulham, he grabbed a Star Man performance and his price sky-rocketed above the £20 barrier, finishing the experiment on £21.17 and overtaking Neymar as the Index’s highest priced player. The only slight dip he had was after his PSG game, which he still brought home a Media Buzz win anyway along with his previous four other Media Buzz wins over the period of the experiment.

At the end of the experiment Pogba had a price increase of £1.45 (7.35%) and returned £0.43 in dividends. The most profitable of all 10 players.

Kylian Mbappe:

Team: PSG

Game Involvement: 6 Games, 5 Goals, 2 Assists

With Neymar being absent from the PSG team due to injury, Mbappe has had a large role to play in PSG’s side. He is currently on 22 goals in 20 league games, which is hugely impressive given none of those are pens. Although when looking at the data, not only has he failed to return any dividends, he has also fallen constantly from £17.03 to £16.35. This may due to his huge price increase that I remember happening as the share-split was announced. Maybe due to his lack of ability to win any dividends and people looking for short term returns, traders are using the money elsewhere.

Mbappe has seen an overall decrease in £0.68 (3.99%).

Lionel Messi:

Team: Barcelona

Game Involvement: 5 Games (1 Sub Appearance), 4 Goals, 1 Assist

Lionel Messi has been a man on a mission so far this season, and his recent performance against Sevilla demonstrated that after he bagged a hat-trick and an assist in their 4-2 win away from home. However, despite being the top dividend returner of the Top 10 players over the experiment period, he has seen a decrease in his price overall. He began the experiment at £15.80 and is currently trading at £15.51, a 1.84% decrease. Although it could be argued that his £0.44 returns in dividends makes up for his depreciation. I would have said this is the most surprising price change out of all of the Top 10 players as you would also favour Barcelona to progress in the Champions League as they most play Lyon in the second leg at home after a 0-0 in the first leg.

Mo Salah:

Team: Liverpool

Game Involvement: 4 Games, 1 Goal

Salah’s recent form hasn’t been what we’ve been used to seeing from him. During the course of the experiment Liverpool had just 1 win from 4, drawing the other 3 games with 2 of those being 0-0. This dry spell from both Salah and Liverpool has resulted in Salah’s price declining slowly from a start of £14.42 to £13.25. He also returned one Media Buzz win as a consolation. I would predict his price to fall further as long as his dry spell continues, and could fall much further if Liverpool were to go out of the Champions League, after their 0-0 first leg tie at home to Bayern.

Salah has fallen £1.17 (8.11%) overall.

Eden Hazard:

Team: Chelsea

Game Involvement: 4 Games

Chelsea have been a talking point in football over the last couple of weeks, getting beat by Man City 6-0 was certainty a low point. However, Eden Hazard still looks like he is trying to make things happen up front for the blues. Unfortunately for the Index a lot of the talk has been about a winger that hasn’t manage to feature in Chelsea’s starting line-up, Callum Hudson-Odoi. With this Hazard has fallen from £14.18 to £13.48 over the course of the experiment, and like Salah has one Media Buzz win as a consolation. I would expect Hazard to at least hold his price, especially if Chelsea’s form picks up again and they progress through the Europa League.

Hazard has fallen £0.70 (4.94%) overall.

Marcus Rashford:

Team: Manchester United

Game Involvement: 3 Games, 1 Assist

Marcus Rashford has been flying since Ole took the wheel at United. He’s managed to find himself on the end of Pogba’s brilliance to score some tidy goals, one being an important goal in a 1-0 win against Tottenham. Over the period of time analysing the Top 10 players, he has been unable to score and was rested for the 3-0 win that United got over Fulham. His one assist came against Chelsea in the 2-0 FA Cup win with a good cross on to Pogba’s head. In that FA Cup game, Rashford was unable to score but looked stupidly dangerous on the counter that night with his pace and willingness to run the channels.

However, Rashford’s price over this experiment has probably corrected itself due to his lack of potential for winning Performance Buzz, and being likely to fall out of the Champions League to PSG. Overall, he has fallen £0.65 (4.89%) and picked up a single Media Buzz win.

Jadon Sancho:

Team: Borussia Dortmund

Game Involvement: 4 Games, 2 Goals, 1 Assist

The former Manchester City youngster has really taken off recently, and he continues to rise consistently on the Index. Even in the 3-0 defeat to Tottenham in the Champions League, Sancho impressed in the first half with his pace and dribbling skills. I would think some of the giants in Europe will come knocking on Dortmund’s door with a bid for this guy! Sancho also won £0.05 in Media Buzz, however, I would expect him to return plenty of dividends over the next year if he continues to play the same way due to being suited to the current Performance Buzz matrix.

Overall, Jadon Sancho has risen a total of £1.36 (11.01%) over the period of the experiment.

Vinicius Junior:

Team: Real Madrid

Game Involvement: 5 Games (1 Sub Appearance), 1 Assist

Junior is another youngster that has been on fire in recent weeks. His pace and ability to beat defenders on the ball causes teams so many problems, and it I’m sure it won’t be long before he is often on the scoresheet or assisting others. His price during the experiment has risen and then fallen almost to his original price at the beginning. Junior doesn’t seem to appeal too much to the media at the moment, but one thing is for sure, he is definitely one for the future!

Vinicius Junior has had an overall increase of £0.17 (1.57%).

Harry Kane:

Team: Tottenham Hotspur

Game Involvement: 1 Game, 1 Goal – Due to injury

Harry Kane has had a brief spell on the side-lines as he got injured. Although, traders saw this as an opportunity to add him to their portfolios as he rose steadily as he got nearer to returning. I’m sure Tottenham’s outstanding performance in the Champions League and putting them in a great position to progress has helped with his price rise. Never the less, Kane did bag himself a goal on his return to the Premier League, despite his team losing 2-1 to Burnley. Due to Kane’s injury he was also able to pick up a Media Buzz win too.

Overall, Harry Kane finished the experiment period with a price rise of £1.20 (12.50%), the highest percentage increase out of all of the Top 10 players.

Summary:

I think that it quite obvious that there are cycles within Football Index. If I was to carry out this experiment for a further 3 weeks then this may be much more evident. Although, I still believe that investing into the Top 10 players as a collective wouldn’t be a bad idea as the Index is still growing, and with the Top 10 being able to also return dividends regularly, further price spikes may also occur. Especially if any of these players are able to have a run of form.

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